African Swine Flu update

After talking to many clients and continuing a watching brief on the African Swine Fever issues throughout Asia, I thought it time to run through a few thoughts on both where it is up to and where to from here.

Firstly, for those that don't know, African Swine Fever (ASF) is a virus that is highly contagious, nearly 100% deadly to pigs of all ages and very resilient in that it remains active for an incredibly long time. I have read it can survive over two months in clothing for example making transmission almost impossible to stop.

Conventional wisdom suggests at least 30% and up to 50% of a population of pigs will catch the virus and die. China used to have 400 million pigs. Vietnam have culled more than 4.5 million pigs and many experts suggest that for every animal culled, another one at least will have died from the virus. Mongolia has lost more than 10% of the total pig population to the virus. Korea has confirmed outbreaks. Laos, Myanmar and Cambodia are also affected.

Rabobank has released research suggesting that 2020 will be the year where the reduction in output will be at it's greatest. Roughly 30 million metric tons of pork production will need to either be substituted by alternatives or eliminated from diets.

Pork is particularly popular in Asia as it is a cheap source of protein. Poultry is next and is expected to ramp up production to meet some of the load. I have read in some journals that it is possible that Asia generally may seek to buy every source of animal protein available to them from everywhere around the globe. That sounds very much like rising cost of food to me as stockpiles of frozen product are utilized.

With ongoing trade tension between the US and China that is written about nearly every day and continuing disastrous seasonal conditions in the north of Australia, producers with grass ahead of them able to build numbers may be headed for a bonanza as pressure comes to bear on markets.

Biosecurity is a growing buzz word for farmers in Australia. To date, we have been extraordinarily lucky not to have been infected by ASF and other exotic disease. Our land girt by sea provides a natural barrier that many countries don't have, however our border control and farm gate control are likely to be put under extreme pressure in coming months and years. The department of agriculture have had significant failures, notably the importation of genetics into WA which was reported on by the ABC which could easily have opened the door to infection. Sheer dumb luck would appear to have been our protection to date. Any outbreak would be disastrous for our reputation globally as a safe haven for food security. Any system is only as good as it's weakest link. I have no doubt security is the highest priority possible for the department however any system needs awareness in community to adhere to guidelines provided to protect the prosperity of our country. All too often I see these things thought of as someone else's problem.

Increased intervention at borders and through the mail is good and has caught infected product. Not having it appear at the border in the first place would be better! Travellers need to be more aware of where this terrible virus is rampant and take active measures to prevent inadvertently bringing the virus back with you. Do not bring food into our country. Do not order exotic animals online. This is serious. Do spread the word with your friends and family and anyone you know who is travelling to Asia. Consider washing all clothing to prevent any food remnants inadvertently travelling with you.

I see from time to time various posts on social media around global warming and food production. I think the ASF is a far more "here and now" emergency that is not getting sufficient airplay. It is time to yell it from the rooftops.

Yours in food production biosecurity

Clinton